Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (89%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on October 29?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 12¢ · $382 held · ends Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 67%
$381.59
-$83.72
42.1¢ → 11.5¢
-73% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 12%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 89%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE HellYeahTrader | Yesavg 61¢ | $159.28 | $154.06 | -$9.14 | 55% 310-252 (562) |
 balthazarCTR | Noavg 51¢ | $102.55 | $94.49 | -$8.06 | 61% 20778-13190 (33968) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Yesavg 55.4¢ | $70.16 | $63.97 | -$0.31 | 24% 285-919 (1204) |
RO rocky42019CTR | Noavg 37.9¢ | $174.75 | $49.04 | -$61.07 | 42% 1700-2322 (4022) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 35.1¢ | $20.74 | $12.44 | -$5.2 | 57% 13319-10177 (23496) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Noavg 46.6¢ | $7.53 | $7.59 | +$0.06 | 53% 6389-5593 (11982) |
Invested
$159.28
Value
$154.06
PnL
-$9.14
Record
55%
310-252 (562)
balthazarCTRInvested
$102.55
Value
$94.49
PnL
-$8.06
Record
61%
20778-13190 (33968)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$70.16
Value
$63.97
PnL
-$0.31
Record
24%
285-919 (1204)
Invested
$174.75
Value
$49.04
PnL
-$61.07
Record
42%
1700-2322 (4022)
Invested
$20.74
Value
$12.44
PnL
-$5.2
Record
57%
13319-10177 (23496)
Invested
$7.53
Value
$7.59
PnL
+$0.06
Record
53%
6389-5593 (11982)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
11.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.