Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on October 29?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 71¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$1.1K
$6.54
73.5¢ → 70.5¢
-4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100 | Noavg 68.4¢ | $727.32 | $763.12 | +$39.37 | 51% 587-559 (1146) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 68.4¢ | $489.54 | $551.17 | +$65.21 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 25.8¢ | $237.79 | $211.95 | -$25.83 | |
 Istaroth | Noavg 73¢ | $153.07 | $150.18 | -$0.73 | 27% 281-769 (1050) |
HE hello.67 | Noavg 73¢ | $106.91 | $112.77 | +$5.86 | 50% 1654-1641 (3295) |
RO rocky42019<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $42.56 | $43.12 | +$0.56 | 42% 1675-2291 (3966) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 73.7¢ | $19.07 | $19.92 | +$0.86 | 57% 13137-10012 (23149) |
Invested
$727.32
Value
$763.12
PnL
+$39.37
Record
51%
587-559 (1146)
Both legs:
IstarothInvested
$153.07
Value
$150.18
PnL
-$0.73
Record
27%
281-769 (1050)
Invested
$106.91
Value
$112.77
PnL
+$5.86
Record
50%
1654-1641 (3295)
Invested
$42.56
Value
$43.12
PnL
+$0.56
Record
42%
1675-2291 (3966)
Invested
$19.07
Value
$19.92
PnL
+$0.86
Record
57%
13137-10012 (23149)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.