Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on October 29?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 100¢ · $120 held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$120.11
-$0.45
98.1¢ → 100¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $59.76 | $58.08 | -$1.68 | 61% 20778-13190 (33968) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 96.3¢ | $49.38 | $40.24 | +$0.56 | 57% 13319-10177 (23496) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $16.16 | $16 | -$0 | 24% 285-919 (1204) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.2¢ | $4.55 | $4.5 | -$0.05 | 50% 1694-1679 (3373) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $0.56 | $1.28 | +$0.72 | 53% 6389-5593 (11982) |
balthazar<$100Invested
$59.76
Value
$58.08
PnL
-$1.68
Record
61%
20778-13190 (33968)
Invested
$49.38
Value
$40.24
PnL
+$0.56
Record
57%
13319-10177 (23496)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$16.16
Value
$16
PnL
-$0
Record
24%
285-919 (1204)
Invested
$4.55
Value
$4.5
PnL
-$0.05
Record
50%
1694-1679 (3373)
Invested
$0.56
Value
$1.28
PnL
+$0.72
Record
53%
6389-5593 (11982)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.