Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on November 7?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 1.0¢ · $488 held · ended Nov 7

Yes1¢No99¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 57%

Total Value

$488.2

Combined PnL

$183.3

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$287.83

Total Shares588

Combined PnL-$39.31

No3 traders

Total Value$200.02

Total Shares202

Combined PnL+$222.61

Yes — 57%No — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 6.4¢	$34.69	$282.34	-$36.94	38% 887-1421 (2308)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023	Noavg 5.8¢	$16.38	$131.38	+$204.09	39% 1298-2033 (3331)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 90.2¢	$94.36	$48.46	+$5.88	58% 21687-15792 (37479)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 22.7¢	$7.55	$20.18	+$12.63	54% 10730-9241 (19971)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$0.15	$5.07	+$4.92	68% 13288-6318 (19606)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.2¢	$1.04	$0.27	-$0.77	53% 24340-21400 (45740)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 22.1¢	$14.19	$0.16	-$6.52	53% 8690-7793 (16483)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$34.69

Value

$282.34

PnL

-$36.94

Record

38%

887-1421 (2308)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023

Invested

$16.38

Value

$131.38

PnL

+$204.09

Record

39%

1298-2033 (3331)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$94.36

Value

$48.46

PnL

+$5.88

Record

58%

21687-15792 (37479)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$7.55

Value

$20.18

PnL

+$12.63

Record

54%

10730-9241 (19971)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.15

Value

$5.07

PnL

+$4.92

Record

68%

13288-6318 (19606)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.04

Value

$0.27

PnL

-$0.77

Record

53%

24340-21400 (45740)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.19

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$6.52

Record

53%

8690-7793 (16483)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.1%

1.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4666.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

4766.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.