Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (89%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on November 7?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 11¢ · $112 held · ends Nov 7

Yes89¢No11¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$112.2

Combined PnL

$172.29

Research grade

AvoidNo at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 89%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes89%

No11%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$83.36

Total Shares277

Combined PnL+$101.81

Yes3 traders

Total Value$28.79

Total Shares39

Combined PnL+$70.47

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 92.9¢	$93.65	$41.04	-$2.09	58% 21678-15777 (37455)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 3.2¢	$9.42	$31.51	+$109.52	39% 1294-2033 (3327)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$2.59	$24.3	+$70.13	53% 8682-7790 (16472)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 60.6¢	$25.88	$4.72	-$0.19	36% 1175-2127 (3302)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Yesavg 79¢	$15.63	$4.45	+$0.4	45% 1854-2248 (4102)
1D 1DVSBSTDCTR<$100	Noavg 99¢	$3.5	$3.52	+$0.02	97% 473-14 (487)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Noavg 63.9¢	$7.91	$2.39	-$5.52	54% 10724-9236 (19960)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 51.7¢	$11.52	$0.18	+$0.08	53% 4562-4051 (8613)
DO donthackme<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$3.13	$0.04	-$0.06	68% 13288-6311 (19599)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$93.65

Value

$41.04

PnL

-$2.09

Record

58%

21678-15777 (37455)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$9.42

Value

$31.51

PnL

+$109.52

Record

39%

1294-2033 (3327)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.59

Value

$24.3

PnL

+$70.13

Record

53%

8682-7790 (16472)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$25.88

Value

$4.72

PnL

-$0.19

Record

36%

1175-2127 (3302)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.63

Value

$4.45

PnL

+$0.4

Record

45%

1854-2248 (4102)

1DVSBSTDCTR<$100

Invested

$3.5

Value

$3.52

PnL

+$0.02

Record

97%

473-14 (487)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Invested

$7.91

Value

$2.39

PnL

-$5.52

Record

54%

10724-9236 (19960)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$11.52

Value

$0.18

PnL

+$0.08

Record

53%

4562-4051 (8613)

donthackme<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.13

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.06

Record

68%

13288-6311 (19599)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 89%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance12.9%

11.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$672.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

772.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.