Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 32°C on November 7?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 100¢ · $152 held · ended Nov 7

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$151.84

Combined PnL

$94.81

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$138.93

Total Shares142

Combined PnL+$94.88

Yes3 traders

Total Value$12.9

Total Shares323

Combined PnL-$0.07

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 9.8¢	$15.06	$67.51	+$101.88	39% 1298-2033 (3331)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 79.9¢	$67.95	$49.11	-$7.34	54% 10730-9241 (19971)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 78¢	$10	$10.26	+$0.26	58% 21687-15792 (37479)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 89.5¢	$8.95	$10	+$1.05	42% 2420-3372 (5792)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 19.7¢	$3.26	$6.62	+$3.36	56% 781-606 (1387)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 22.6¢	$9.66	$6.16	-$3.5	38% 887-1421 (2308)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$2.5	$2.06	-$0.95	97% 476-14 (490)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$6.57	$0.12	+$0.07	68% 13288-6318 (19606)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$15.06

Value

$67.51

PnL

+$101.88

Record

39%

1298-2033 (3331)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$67.95

Value

$49.11

PnL

-$7.34

Record

54%

10730-9241 (19971)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$10.26

PnL

+$0.26

Record

58%

21687-15792 (37479)

123987456<$100

Invested

$8.95

Value

$10

PnL

+$1.05

Record

42%

2420-3372 (5792)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.26

Value

$6.62

PnL

+$3.36

Record

56%

781-606 (1387)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.66

Value

$6.16

PnL

-$3.5

Record

38%

887-1421 (2308)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.06

PnL

-$0.95

Record

97%

476-14 (490)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.57

Value

$0.12

PnL

+$0.07

Record

68%

13288-6318 (19606)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.