Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 30°C on November 7?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $344 held · ended Nov 7

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$344.26

Combined PnL

$123.29

Smart Money Entry

30.8¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$250.12

Total Shares1,435

Combined PnL+$39.06

No4 traders

Total Value$93.23

Total Shares90

Combined PnL+$84.24

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI BilberryCTR	Yesavg 35¢	$190.29	$139.27	-$51.02	53% 4144-3712 (7856)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 19.6¢	$371.84	$53.65	+$102.15	38% 887-1421 (2308)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 38.6¢	$84.23	$51.2	-$18.46	54% 10730-9241 (19971)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 75.1¢	$20.41	$39.97	+$19.56	13% 589-3865 (4454)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 4¢	$4.36	$23.76	+$67.66	39% 1298-2033 (3331)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 62.3¢	$53.14	$18.07	-$4.7	58% 21687-15792 (37479)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 48.2¢	$14.97	$11.42	+$1.72	53% 8690-7793 (16483)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.1¢	$4.82	$6	+$6.38	17% 4526-22231 (26757)

BilberryCTR

Yes

Invested

$190.29

Value

$139.27

PnL

-$51.02

Record

53%

4144-3712 (7856)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$371.84

Value

$53.65

PnL

+$102.15

Record

38%

887-1421 (2308)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$84.23

Value

$51.2

PnL

-$18.46

Record

54%

10730-9241 (19971)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$20.41

Value

$39.97

PnL

+$19.56

Record

13%

589-3865 (4454)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$4.36

Value

$23.76

PnL

+$67.66

Record

39%

1298-2033 (3331)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$53.14

Value

$18.07

PnL

-$4.7

Record

58%

21687-15792 (37479)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$14.97

Value

$11.42

PnL

+$1.72

Record

53%

8690-7793 (16483)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.82

Value

PnL

+$6.38

Record

17%

4526-22231 (26757)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.