Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on November 6?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 52¢ · $428 held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 100%
$428.31
$50.76
39.7¢ → 52¢
+31% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Yesavg 39.3¢ | $167.08 | $220.47 | +$26.88 | 38% 858-1404 (2262) |
HE HellYeahTrader | Yesavg 40.2¢ | $160.57 | $183.9 | +$22.09 | 56% 724-559 (1283) |
 Roflan-ludoman<$100 | Yesavg 38¢ | $10.78 | $12.11 | +$1.03 | 62% 658-398 (1056) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Yesavg 42.2¢ | $10.86 | $11.84 | +$0.77 | 32% 2226-4728 (6954) |
Invested
$167.08
Value
$220.47
PnL
+$26.88
Record
38%
858-1404 (2262)
Invested
$160.57
Value
$183.9
PnL
+$22.09
Record
56%
724-559 (1283)
Roflan-ludoman<$100Invested
$10.78
Value
$12.11
PnL
+$1.03
Record
62%
658-398 (1056)
Invested
$10.86
Value
$11.84
PnL
+$0.77
Record
32%
2226-4728 (6954)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.