Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on November 2?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $48 held · ends Nov 2

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 63%

Total Value

$48.25

Combined PnL

-$0.75

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$47.29

Total Shares48

Combined PnL-$0.3

Yes5 traders

Total Value$0.96

Total Shares78

Combined PnL-$0.45

No — 38%Yes — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$20.4	$20.24	-$0.17	38% 680-1090 (1770)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$20	$19.99	-$0.01	45% 1527-1832 (3359)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$7.19	$7.07	-$0.12	35% 698-1270 (1968)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$0.66	$0.49	-$0.17	47% 1566-1776 (3342)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$0.23	$0.17	-$0.06	38% 751-1204 (1955)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$0.27	$0.14	-$0.13	56% 3732-2932 (6664)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$0.19	$0.14	-$0.05	37% 633-1096 (1729)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$0.06	$0.01	-$0.04	57% 17226-12892 (30118)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$20.4

Value

$20.24

PnL

-$0.17

Record

38%

680-1090 (1770)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$20

Value

$19.99

PnL

-$0.01

Record

45%

1527-1832 (3359)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$7.19

Value

$7.07

PnL

-$0.12

Record

35%

698-1270 (1968)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.66

Value

$0.49

PnL

-$0.17

Record

47%

1566-1776 (3342)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.23

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$0.06

Record

38%

751-1204 (1955)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.27

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$0.13

Record

56%

3732-2932 (6664)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.19

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$0.05

Record

37%

633-1096 (1729)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.06

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.04

Record

57%

17226-12892 (30118)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.4%

0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7230.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

7330.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.