Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (81%). 8 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on November 2?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (73%) · Yes at 19¢ · $70 held · ends Nov 2

Yes19¢No81¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 73%

Total Value

$69.73

Combined PnL

$5.79

Research grade

AvoidYes at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors No 81%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$48.45

Total Shares55

Combined PnL+$1.85

Yes8 traders

Total Value$21.28

Total Shares123

Combined PnL+$3.94

No — 27%Yes — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 82¢	$20.95	$22.73	+$2.35	57% 17226-12892 (30118)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 89¢	$14	$13.05	-$0.95	54% 7342-6317 (13659)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 74.7¢	$12.21	$12.67	+$0.46	47% 1566-1776 (3342)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.6¢	$1.88	$4.39	+$2.51	38% 751-1204 (1955)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 13.7¢	$5.01	$4.32	-$0.69	45% 1527-1832 (3359)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 18.1¢	$3.46	$3.39	-$0.07	35% 554-1008 (1562)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 19.1¢	$2.13	$2.51	+$0.38	42% 938-1305 (2243)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 18.3¢	$1.86	$2.28	+$0.42	37% 633-1096 (1729)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 21.5¢	$1.76	$2.28	+$0.52	35% 698-1270 (1968)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.9¢	$0.6	$1.13	+$0.54	38% 680-1090 (1770)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.7¢	$0.64	$0.98	+$0.34	56% 3732-2932 (6664)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$20.95

Value

$22.73

PnL

+$2.35

Record

57%

17226-12892 (30118)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$14

Value

$13.05

PnL

-$0.95

Record

54%

7342-6317 (13659)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$12.21

Value

$12.67

PnL

+$0.46

Record

47%

1566-1776 (3342)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.88

Value

$4.39

PnL

+$2.51

Record

38%

751-1204 (1955)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.01

Value

$4.32

PnL

-$0.69

Record

45%

1527-1832 (3359)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.46

Value

$3.39

PnL

-$0.07

Record

35%

554-1008 (1562)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.13

Value

$2.51

PnL

+$0.38

Record

42%

938-1305 (2243)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.86

Value

$2.28

PnL

+$0.42

Record

37%

633-1096 (1729)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.76

Value

$2.28

PnL

+$0.52

Record

35%

698-1270 (1968)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.6

Value

$1.13

PnL

+$0.54

Record

38%

680-1090 (1770)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.64

Value

$0.98

PnL

+$0.34

Record

56%

3732-2932 (6664)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors No 81%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance20.6%

18.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$384.37

Max Loss

-$100.00

484.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.