Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on November 15?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 100¢ · $190 held · ended Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 64%

Total Value

$190.45

Combined PnL

-$23.85

Smart Money Entry

99.9¢ → 100¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$190.23

Total Shares190

Combined PnL+$0.03

Yes4 traders

Total Value$0.22

Total Shares218

Combined PnL-$23.88

No — 64%Yes — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$92.4	$92.41	+$0.01	99% 1609-24 (1633)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$32.49	$32.5	+$0.01	47% 887-1007 (1894)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$27.32	$27.32	+$0	52% 909-844 (1753)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$17.35	$17.36	+$0.01	49% 854-884 (1738)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$13.95	$13.96	+$0	51% 945-892 (1837)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.11	$5.11	+$0	58% 864-619 (1483)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$1.57	$1.57	+$0	57% 836-638 (1474)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$30.37	$0.12	-$12.78	50% 919-925 (1844)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.45	$0.06	-$5.39	42% 5212-7125 (12337)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$12.71	$0.02	-$2.65	24% 788-2560 (3348)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$16.68	$0.02	-$3.06	28% 3298-8406 (11704)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$92.4

Value

$92.41

PnL

+$0.01

Record

99%

1609-24 (1633)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$32.49

Value

$32.5

PnL

+$0.01

Record

47%

887-1007 (1894)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$27.32

Value

$27.32

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

909-844 (1753)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$17.35

Value

$17.36

PnL

+$0.01

Record

49%

854-884 (1738)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$13.95

Value

$13.96

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

945-892 (1837)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$5.11

Value

$5.11

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

864-619 (1483)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$1.57

Value

$1.57

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

836-638 (1474)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.37

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$12.78

Record

50%

919-925 (1844)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.45

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$5.39

Record

42%

5212-7125 (12337)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.71

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.65

Record

24%

788-2560 (3348)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.68

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.06

Record

28%

3298-8406 (11704)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.