Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (62%). 11 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on November 15?

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (85%) · No at 38¢ · $134 held · ends Nov 15

Yes62¢No38¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 85%

Total Value

$134.39

Combined PnL

$57.51

Research grade

NeutralNo at 38%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 62%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes62%

No38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$71.26

Total Shares107

Combined PnL+$59.46

No11 traders

Total Value$63.12

Total Shares129

Combined PnL-$1.94

Yes — 15%No — 85%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432<$100	Yesavg 19.5¢	$28.62	$65.59	+$58.03	42% 783-1092 (1875)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Noavg 46.5¢	$21.56	$26.38	+$4.82	71% 939-382 (1321)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 51¢	$10.2	$8.2	-$2	53% 7447-6561 (14008)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 48.7¢	$9.18	$7.25	-$1.93	52% 900-835 (1735)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 16.5¢	$4.25	$5.67	+$1.42	53% 2282-2055 (4337)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Noavg 58.9¢	$6.07	$5.25	-$0.82	60% 866-583 (1449)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 56.2¢	$6.23	$4.27	-$1.96	47% 1230-1384 (2614)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 40.6¢	$6.02	$3.77	-$2.24	58% 859-610 (1469)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 47¢	$5.19	$2.55	+$0.98	24% 779-2522 (3301)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 58¢	$1.76	$2.18	+$0.42	52% 936-867 (1803)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 19¢	$0.98	$1.32	+$0.34	47% 881-992 (1873)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 35¢	$0.79	$1.02	+$0.24	50% 912-916 (1828)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 35¢	$0.71	$0.92	+$0.21	57% 831-625 (1456)

241532532432<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.62

Value

$65.59

PnL

+$58.03

Record

42%

783-1092 (1875)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Invested

$21.56

Value

$26.38

PnL

+$4.82

Record

71%

939-382 (1321)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$10.2

Value

$8.2

PnL

-$2

Record

53%

7447-6561 (14008)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$9.18

Value

$7.25

PnL

-$1.93

Record

52%

900-835 (1735)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.25

Value

$5.67

PnL

+$1.42

Record

53%

2282-2055 (4337)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Invested

$6.07

Value

$5.25

PnL

-$0.82

Record

60%

866-583 (1449)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$6.23

Value

$4.27

PnL

-$1.96

Record

47%

1230-1384 (2614)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$6.02

Value

$3.77

PnL

-$2.24

Record

58%

859-610 (1469)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$5.19

Value

$2.55

PnL

+$0.98

Record

24%

779-2522 (3301)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$1.76

Value

$2.18

PnL

+$0.42

Record

52%

936-867 (1803)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$0.98

Value

$1.32

PnL

+$0.34

Record

47%

881-992 (1873)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$0.79

Value

$1.02

PnL

+$0.24

Record

50%

912-916 (1828)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$0.71

Value

$0.92

PnL

+$0.21

Record

57%

831-625 (1456)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 38%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 62%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.2%

38.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$148.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

248.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.