Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on November 15?

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 65¢ · $487 held · ends Nov 15

Yes36¢No64¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

Total Value

$486.52

Combined PnL

-$138.6

Smart Money Entry

64.5¢ → 64.5¢

+0% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes36%

No65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$411.42

Total Shares883

Combined PnL-$152.19

Yes2 traders

Total Value$75.07

Total Shares123

Combined PnL+$13.58

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67	Noavg 65¢	$474.34	$335.92	-$138.41	53% 2343-2099 (4442)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 40.6¢	$76.21	$52.16	+$10.05	42% 783-1092 (1875)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100	Noavg 63.2¢	$64	$46.58	-$17.42	54% 1237-1050 (2287)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 41.4¢	$19.38	$22.91	+$3.53	71% 939-382 (1321)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 50¢	$9.59	$7	-$2.59	53% 7447-6561 (14008)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 76.4¢	$5.63	$5.52	-$0.11	60% 866-583 (1449)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 79.8¢	$16.2	$4.93	+$5.59	50% 912-916 (1828)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 62¢	$3.11	$3.44	+$0.33	57% 831-625 (1456)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 46¢	$2.3	$3.18	+$0.88	58% 859-610 (1469)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 53.1¢	$2.76	$2.57	-$0.19	47% 1230-1384 (2614)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 66¢	$1.33	$1.17	-$0.16	49% 844-877 (1721)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 81¢	$1.21	$1.12	-$0.09	47% 881-992 (1873)

hello.67

Invested

$474.34

Value

$335.92

PnL

-$138.41

Record

53%

2343-2099 (4442)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$76.21

Value

$52.16

PnL

+$10.05

Record

42%

783-1092 (1875)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100

Invested

$64

Value

$46.58

PnL

-$17.42

Record

54%

1237-1050 (2287)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.38

Value

$22.91

PnL

+$3.53

Record

71%

939-382 (1321)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$9.59

Value

PnL

-$2.59

Record

53%

7447-6561 (14008)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$5.63

Value

$5.52

PnL

-$0.11

Record

60%

866-583 (1449)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$16.2

Value

$4.93

PnL

+$5.59

Record

50%

912-916 (1828)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$3.11

Value

$3.44

PnL

+$0.33

Record

57%

831-625 (1456)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$2.3

Value

$3.18

PnL

+$0.88

Record

58%

859-610 (1469)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$2.76

Value

$2.57

PnL

-$0.19

Record

47%

1230-1384 (2614)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$1.33

Value

$1.17

PnL

-$0.16

Record

49%

844-877 (1721)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$1.21

Value

$1.12

PnL

-$0.09

Record

47%

881-992 (1873)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 65%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.