Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on November 15?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $72 held · ended Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$72.03

Combined PnL

-$240.9

Smart Money Entry

30.7¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$49.79

Total Shares996

Combined PnL-$248.7

No2 traders

Total Value$22.25

Total Shares22

Combined PnL+$7.8

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 45.2¢	$245.19	$27.13	-$218.06	54% 1238-1053 (2291)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 54.5¢	$9.35	$17.14	+$7.79	53% 2305-2071 (4376)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$22.18	$12.2	-$9.98	50% 919-925 (1844)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$5.1	$5.1	+$0.01	47% 1242-1391 (2633)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 26.2¢	$78.42	$4.14	-$18.99	42% 803-1100 (1903)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$14.24	$2	+$5.95	42% 5212-7125 (12337)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.16	$1.45	-$1.14	28% 3298-8406 (11704)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.67	$1.18	-$0	24% 788-2560 (3348)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$5	$1	-$4	14% 103-624 (727)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$3.14	$0.68	-$2.46	71% 950-388 (1338)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$245.19

Value

$27.13

PnL

-$218.06

Record

54%

1238-1053 (2291)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$9.35

Value

$17.14

PnL

+$7.79

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.18

Value

$12.2

PnL

-$9.98

Record

50%

919-925 (1844)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$5.1

Value

$5.1

PnL

+$0.01

Record

47%

1242-1391 (2633)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$78.42

Value

$4.14

PnL

-$18.99

Record

42%

803-1100 (1903)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.24

Value

PnL

+$5.95

Record

42%

5212-7125 (12337)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.16

Value

$1.45

PnL

-$1.14

Record

28%

3298-8406 (11704)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.67

Value

$1.18

PnL

-$0

Record

24%

788-2560 (3348)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

-$4

Record

14%

103-624 (727)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.14

Value

$0.68

PnL

-$2.46

Record

71%

950-388 (1338)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.