Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on November 14?

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (91%) · No at 100¢ · $251 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 91%

Total Value

$251.4

Combined PnL

-$2.71

Smart Money Entry

99.4¢ → 99.7¢

+0% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$251.31

Total Shares255

Combined PnL-$2.63

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.09

Total Shares8

Combined PnL-$0.08

No — 91%Yes — 9%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$55.21	$54.47	-$0.74	46% 1095-1300 (2395)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$52.71	$52.54	-$0.16	49% 753-797 (1550)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$82.22	$42.04	-$0.74	99% 1281-15 (1296)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$29.97	$29.67	-$0.3	30% 240-572 (812)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$23.32	$23.11	-$0.21	58% 703-515 (1218)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$15.04	$14.8	-$0.24	27% 688-1902 (2590)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$10.97	$10.75	-$0.21	59% 724-513 (1237)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$9.87	$9.99	+$0.12	51% 769-727 (1496)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$9.01	$8.92	-$0.09	51% 804-766 (1570)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$5.07	$5.01	-$0.05	51% 719-703 (1422)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$0.17	$0.09	-$0.08	52% 1696-1538 (3234)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$55.21

Value

$54.47

PnL

-$0.74

Record

46%

1095-1300 (2395)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$52.71

Value

$52.54

PnL

-$0.16

Record

49%

753-797 (1550)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$82.22

Value

$42.04

PnL

-$0.74

Record

99%

1281-15 (1296)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$29.97

Value

$29.67

PnL

-$0.3

Record

30%

240-572 (812)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$23.32

Value

$23.11

PnL

-$0.21

Record

58%

703-515 (1218)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$15.04

Value

$14.8

PnL

-$0.24

Record

27%

688-1902 (2590)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$10.97

Value

$10.75

PnL

-$0.21

Record

59%

724-513 (1237)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$9.87

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$0.12

Record

51%

769-727 (1496)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$9.01

Value

$8.92

PnL

-$0.09

Record

51%

804-766 (1570)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$5.07

Value

$5.01

PnL

-$0.05

Record

51%

719-703 (1422)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.17

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$0.08

Record

52%

1696-1538 (3234)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.