Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (95%). 10 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on November 14?

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 5.5¢ · $152 held · ends Nov 14

Yes95¢No5¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$152.12

Combined PnL

$63.16

Research grade

AvoidNo at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 95%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes95%

No6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$133.19

Total Shares200

Combined PnL+$56.39

No10 traders

Total Value$18.93

Total Shares178

Combined PnL+$6.77

Yes — 29%No — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67<$100	Yesavg 29.5¢	$28.24	$71.81	+$43.57	55% 2285-1885 (4170)
24 241532532432<$100	Yesavg 31.3¢	$23.45	$33.75	+$10.3	40% 650-980 (1630)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 81.7¢	$46.96	$22.62	+$0.69	52% 1696-1538 (3234)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Noavg 69.7¢	$6.92	$5.46	-$1.46	72% 853-335 (1188)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Yesavg 59¢	$3.19	$5.02	+$1.83	51% 769-727 (1496)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 6¢	$1.83	$2.93	+$1.1	51% 804-766 (1570)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 9.6¢	$2.5	$2.55	+$0.05	49% 785-823 (1608)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 11.7¢	$1.86	$2.06	+$0.21	27% 688-1902 (2590)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Noavg 69¢	$2.23	$1.77	-$0.45	31% 161-352 (513)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 10.3¢	$6.02	$1.49	-$4.53	51% 719-703 (1422)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 6¢	$1.2	$1.4	+$0.2	53% 7024-6169 (13193)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 11¢	$0.45	$0.73	+$0.28	59% 724-513 (1237)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Noavg 5¢	$1.02	$0.35	+$11.3	63% 736-439 (1175)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 2¢	$0.1	$0.17	+$0.07	58% 703-515 (1218)

hello.67<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.24

Value

$71.81

PnL

+$43.57

Record

55%

2285-1885 (4170)

241532532432<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.45

Value

$33.75

PnL

+$10.3

Record

40%

650-980 (1630)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.96

Value

$22.62

PnL

+$0.69

Record

52%

1696-1538 (3234)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Invested

$6.92

Value

$5.46

PnL

-$1.46

Record

72%

853-335 (1188)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.19

Value

$5.02

PnL

+$1.83

Record

51%

769-727 (1496)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$1.83

Value

$2.93

PnL

+$1.1

Record

51%

804-766 (1570)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.55

PnL

+$0.05

Record

49%

785-823 (1608)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$1.86

Value

$2.06

PnL

+$0.21

Record

27%

688-1902 (2590)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Invested

$2.23

Value

$1.77

PnL

-$0.45

Record

31%

161-352 (513)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$6.02

Value

$1.49

PnL

-$4.53

Record

51%

719-703 (1422)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$1.2

Value

$1.4

PnL

+$0.2

Record

53%

7024-6169 (13193)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$0.45

Value

$0.73

PnL

+$0.28

Record

59%

724-513 (1237)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Invested

$1.02

Value

$0.35

PnL

+$11.3

Record

63%

736-439 (1175)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$0.1

Value

$0.17

PnL

+$0.07

Record

58%

703-515 (1218)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 95%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance6.8%

5.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1369.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

1469.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.