Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on November 14?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $95 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$94.93

Combined PnL

-$130.86

Smart Money Entry

30.4¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$83.08

Total Shares83

Combined PnL+$38.43

Yes6 traders

Total Value$11.84

Total Shares592

Combined PnL-$169.3

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 56¢	$26.95	$48.1	+$21.15	55% 2289-1901 (4190)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 50¢	$15	$29.99	+$14.99	35% 250-467 (717)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 46.7¢	$152.02	$6.5	-$145.51	55% 1214-1001 (2215)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 54¢	$2.7	$5	+$2.3	40% 657-989 (1646)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$19.64	$4.32	-$15.32	63% 739-442 (1181)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 15.3¢	$6.27	$0.44	-$3.93	52% 1708-1554 (3262)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.44	$0.32	-$1.13	27% 691-1911 (2602)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 44¢	$3.52	$0.16	-$3.36	31% 165-364 (529)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$0.15	$0.1	-$0.05	58% 725-518 (1243)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$26.95

Value

$48.1

PnL

+$21.15

Record

55%

2289-1901 (4190)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$15

Value

$29.99

PnL

+$14.99

Record

35%

250-467 (717)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$152.02

Value

$6.5

PnL

-$145.51

Record

55%

1214-1001 (2215)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$2.7

Value

PnL

+$2.3

Record

40%

657-989 (1646)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.64

Value

$4.32

PnL

-$15.32

Record

63%

739-442 (1181)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.27

Value

$0.44

PnL

-$3.93

Record

52%

1708-1554 (3262)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.44

Value

$0.32

PnL

-$1.13

Record

27%

691-1911 (2602)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.52

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$3.36

Record

31%

165-364 (529)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$0.05

Record

58%

725-518 (1243)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.