Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on November 13?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 55¢ · $511 held · ends Nov 13

Yes55¢No45¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$510.97

Combined PnL

$128.32

Smart Money Entry

36.9¢ → 54.5¢

+48% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes55%

No46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$443.08

Total Shares814

Combined PnL+$143.08

No2 traders

Total Value$67.9

Total Shares149

Combined PnL-$14.76

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67	Yesavg 36.6¢	$255.13	$380.24	+$125.11	61% 2173-1396 (3569)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Noavg 54.5¢	$64	$53.47	-$10.53	35% 24-44 (68)
24 241532532432<$100	Yesavg 37.8¢	$36.68	$46.26	+$14.91	37% 464-794 (1258)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 59.5¢	$18.66	$14.43	-$4.23	53% 6285-5568 (11853)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 42.1¢	$7.77	$9.98	+$2.21	54% 1043-906 (1949)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Yesavg 43¢	$2.58	$3.24	+$0.66	45% 137-168 (305)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Yesavg 44¢	$2.26	$2.77	+$0.51	65% 4208-2227 (6435)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 45¢	$5.91	$0.58	-$0.33	74% 716-248 (964)

hello.67

Yes

Invested

$255.13

Value

$380.24

PnL

+$125.11

Record

61%

2173-1396 (3569)

BilberryCTR<$100

Invested

$64

Value

$53.47

PnL

-$10.53

Record

35%

24-44 (68)

241532532432<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.68

Value

$46.26

PnL

+$14.91

Record

37%

464-794 (1258)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$18.66

Value

$14.43

PnL

-$4.23

Record

53%

6285-5568 (11853)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.77

Value

$9.98

PnL

+$2.21

Record

54%

1043-906 (1949)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.58

Value

$3.24

PnL

+$0.66

Record

45%

137-168 (305)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.26

Value

$2.77

PnL

+$0.51

Record

65%

4208-2227 (6435)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.91

Value

$0.58

PnL

-$0.33

Record

74%

716-248 (964)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 55%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.