Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on November 13?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 82¢ · $643 held · ends Nov 13

Yes19¢No81¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$642.62

Combined PnL

$138.28

Smart Money Entry

63.6¢ → 81.5¢

+28% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$574.41

Total Shares745

Combined PnL+$142.87

Yes4 traders

Total Value$68.21

Total Shares200

Combined PnL-$4.59

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67	Noavg 65.4¢	$427.38	$411.29	+$106.91	61% 2175-1410 (3585)
24 241532532432	Noavg 59.8¢	$106.43	$137.95	+$31.52	37% 467-800 (1267)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 41.8¢	$91.41	$58.34	-$10.82	58% 1171-835 (2006)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 50¢	$10	$13.8	+$3.8	53% 6319-5588 (11907)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$6.19	$6.65	+$0.46	35% 24-44 (68)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 72¢	$6.4	$6.31	-$0.09	53% 1117-973 (2090)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 59¢	$4.33	$5.05	+$0.73	74% 721-251 (972)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$2.1	$1.65	-$0.45	45% 137-168 (305)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$11.26	$1.58	+$6.23	36% 3534-6183 (9717)

hello.67

Invested

$427.38

Value

$411.29

PnL

+$106.91

Record

61%

2175-1410 (3585)

241532532432

Invested

$106.43

Value

$137.95

PnL

+$31.52

Record

37%

467-800 (1267)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$91.41

Value

$58.34

PnL

-$10.82

Record

58%

1171-835 (2006)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$13.8

PnL

+$3.8

Record

53%

6319-5588 (11907)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.19

Value

$6.65

PnL

+$0.46

Record

35%

24-44 (68)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$6.4

Value

$6.31

PnL

-$0.09

Record

53%

1117-973 (2090)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$4.33

Value

$5.05

PnL

+$0.73

Record

74%

721-251 (972)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.1

Value

$1.65

PnL

-$0.45

Record

45%

137-168 (305)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.26

Value

$1.58

PnL

+$6.23

Record

36%

3534-6183 (9717)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.