Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on November 12?

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (86%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $70 held · ends Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 86%

Total Value

$70.48

Combined PnL

-$94.55

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$69.96

Total Shares70

Combined PnL+$0.03

Yes6 traders

Total Value$0.52

Total Shares1,046

Combined PnL-$94.58

No — 14%Yes — 86%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$69.92	$69.96	+$0.03	99% 398-3 (401)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$43.55	$0.24	-$43.31	68% 2115-1000 (3115)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$36.77	$0.2	-$36.57	59% 1032-714 (1746)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.73	$0.04	-$7.69	32% 2924-6249 (9173)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.87	$0.03	-$5.84	39% 3421-5409 (8830)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.73	$0	-$0.72	40% 1374-2022 (3396)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.45	$0	-$0.45	68% 442-211 (653)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$69.92

Value

$69.96

PnL

+$0.03

Record

99%

398-3 (401)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.55

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$43.31

Record

68%

2115-1000 (3115)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.77

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$36.57

Record

59%

1032-714 (1746)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.73

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$7.69

Record

32%

2924-6249 (9173)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.87

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$5.84

Record

39%

3421-5409 (8830)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.73

Value

PnL

-$0.72

Record

40%

1374-2022 (3396)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

PnL

-$0.45

Record

68%

442-211 (653)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.