Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on November 12?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 99¢ · $63 held · ends Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$63.17

Combined PnL

-$70.04

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$51.39

Total Shares52

Combined PnL-$0.27

Yes5 traders

Total Value$11.6

Total Shares897

Combined PnL-$69.77

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$23.29	$23.24	-$0.05	58% 468-339 (807)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$10.85	$10.68	-$0.16	53% 6071-5438 (11509)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 98.1¢	$6.46	$6.51	+$0.05	53% 905-797 (1702)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$43.55	$6.23	-$37.32	63% 2135-1236 (3371)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$6	$5.98	-$0.02	99% 649-8 (657)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$36.77	$5.26	-$31.51	58% 1038-742 (1780)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$5.07	$4.98	-$0.09	48% 498-549 (1047)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.02	$0.04	+$0.02	48% 124-136 (260)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.01	$0.04	-$0.97	39% 1399-2233 (3632)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.02	$0.03	+$0.01	63% 463-277 (740)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$23.29

Value

$23.24

PnL

-$0.05

Record

58%

468-339 (807)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$10.85

Value

$10.68

PnL

-$0.16

Record

53%

6071-5438 (11509)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$6.46

Value

$6.51

PnL

+$0.05

Record

53%

905-797 (1702)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.55

Value

$6.23

PnL

-$37.32

Record

63%

2135-1236 (3371)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

Value

$5.98

PnL

-$0.02

Record

99%

649-8 (657)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.77

Value

$5.26

PnL

-$31.51

Record

58%

1038-742 (1780)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$5.07

Value

$4.98

PnL

-$0.09

Record

48%

498-549 (1047)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.04

PnL

+$0.02

Record

48%

124-136 (260)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.01

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.97

Record

39%

1399-2233 (3632)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.03

PnL

+$0.01

Record

63%

463-277 (740)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.