Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on November 12?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 90¢ · $124 held · ends Nov 12

Yes10¢No90¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$123.68

Combined PnL

-$53.91

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$73.08

Total Shares80

Combined PnL-$10.78

Yes3 traders

Total Value$50.51

Total Shares1,377

Combined PnL-$43.13

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$56.33	$47.67	-$4.94	53% 866-756 (1622)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.1¢	$54.97	$41.24	-$13.73	64% 2127-1183 (3310)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$10.85	$10.73	-$0.12	53% 6040-5408 (11448)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$36.77	$7.48	-$29.29	59% 1032-732 (1764)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$5.02	$5	-$0.02	58% 456-326 (782)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$5.03	$4.98	-$0.05	47% 506-567 (1073)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$70.87	$4.71	-$5.65	37% 3439-5885 (9324)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$1.9	$1.79	-$0.11	35% 393-725 (1118)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$56.33

Value

$47.67

PnL

-$4.94

Record

53%

866-756 (1622)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.97

Value

$41.24

PnL

-$13.73

Record

64%

2127-1183 (3310)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$10.85

Value

$10.73

PnL

-$0.12

Record

53%

6040-5408 (11448)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.77

Value

$7.48

PnL

-$29.29

Record

59%

1032-732 (1764)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$5.02

Value

PnL

-$0.02

Record

58%

456-326 (782)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$5.03

Value

$4.98

PnL

-$0.05

Record

47%

506-567 (1073)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$70.87

Value

$4.71

PnL

-$5.65

Record

37%

3439-5885 (9324)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.9

Value

$1.79

PnL

-$0.11

Record

35%

393-725 (1118)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.3%

89.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.