Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on November 12?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 91¢ · $183 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$182.83
-$4.78
88.7¢ → 90.8¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $72.77 | $70.08 | -$2.69 | 28% 2449-6153 (8602) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0<$100 | Noavg 84.4¢ | $54.72 | $58.77 | +$4.05 | 59% 1019-705 (1724) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 89.3¢ | $39.83 | $35.92 | -$3.91 | 35% 2910-5328 (8238) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 96.7¢ | $10.53 | $9.54 | -$0.99 | 52% 5322-4827 (10149) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 86.3¢ | $6.9 | $6.44 | -$0.46 | 38% 1193-1980 (3173) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.9¢ | $2.86 | $2.08 | -$0.78 | 51% 265-255 (520) |
Invested
$72.77
Value
$70.08
PnL
-$2.69
Record
28%
2449-6153 (8602)
Invested
$54.72
Value
$58.77
PnL
+$4.05
Record
59%
1019-705 (1724)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$39.83
Value
$35.92
PnL
-$3.91
Record
35%
2910-5328 (8238)
Invested
$10.53
Value
$9.54
PnL
-$0.99
Record
52%
5322-4827 (10149)
Invested
$6.9
Value
$6.44
PnL
-$0.46
Record
38%
1193-1980 (3173)
Invested
$2.86
Value
$2.08
PnL
-$0.78
Record
51%
265-255 (520)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.