Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on November 12?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 52¢ · $142 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$141.6
-$10.44
57.1¢ → 51.6¢
-10% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $62.98 | $61.31 | -$1.67 | 59% 1019-705 (1724) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 61.3¢ | $49.04 | $42.4 | -$6.64 | 29% 2560-6176 (8736) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 60.6¢ | $14.9 | $13.03 | -$1.87 | 36% 3035-5349 (8384) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 46.4¢ | $8.27 | $8.68 | +$0.41 | 53% 335-299 (634) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 42¢ | $5.04 | $5.85 | +$0.81 | 28% 213-547 (760) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $6.64 | $5.77 | -$0.87 | 53% 5440-4884 (10324) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 60.6¢ | $4.85 | $4.24 | -$0.61 | 38% 1223-1986 (3209) |
Invested
$62.98
Value
$61.31
PnL
-$1.67
Record
59%
1019-705 (1724)
Invested
$49.04
Value
$42.4
PnL
-$6.64
Record
29%
2560-6176 (8736)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$14.9
Value
$13.03
PnL
-$1.87
Record
36%
3035-5349 (8384)
Invested
$8.27
Value
$8.68
PnL
+$0.41
Record
53%
335-299 (634)
Invested
$5.04
Value
$5.85
PnL
+$0.81
Record
28%
213-547 (760)
Invested
$6.64
Value
$5.77
PnL
-$0.87
Record
53%
5440-4884 (10324)
Invested
$4.85
Value
$4.24
PnL
-$0.61
Record
38%
1223-1986 (3209)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.