Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (55%). 1 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 32°C on November 12?
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (17%) · Yes at 46¢ · $235 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 17%
$235.14
$12.22
Research grade
NeutralYes at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)Underdog side (market favors No 55%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 45.7¢ | $123.7 | $119.08 | -$4.62 | 59% 1019-705 (1724) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $40.8 | $48 | +$7.2 | 28% 2449-6153 (8602) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 52.9¢ | $34.18 | $38.76 | +$4.57 | 35% 2910-5328 (8238) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 53.7¢ | $25.98 | $17.97 | +$3.64 | 51% 265-255 (520) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $5.66 | $6.53 | +$0.87 | 52% 5322-4827 (10149) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $4.24 | $4.8 | +$0.56 | 38% 1193-1980 (3173) |
Invested
$123.7
Value
$119.08
PnL
-$4.62
Record
59%
1019-705 (1724)
Invested
$40.8
Value
$48
PnL
+$7.2
Record
28%
2449-6153 (8602)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$34.18
Value
$38.76
PnL
+$4.57
Record
35%
2910-5328 (8238)
Invested
$25.98
Value
$17.97
PnL
+$3.64
Record
51%
265-255 (520)
Invested
$5.66
Value
$6.53
PnL
+$0.87
Record
52%
5322-4827 (10149)
Invested
$4.24
Value
$4.8
PnL
+$0.56
Record
38%
1193-1980 (3173)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.