Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on November 11?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $54 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$53.84
$0
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $39.92 | $39.92 | +$0 | 53% 5602-5022 (10624) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $5.04 | $5.04 | -$0 | 41% 662-968 (1630) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $4.16 | $4.16 | +$0 | 30% 2654-6198 (8852) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $2.5 | $2.5 | +$0 | 99% 224-2 (226) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $2.21 | $2.22 | +$0 | 37% 3143-5368 (8511) |
Invested
$39.92
Value
$39.92
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5602-5022 (10624)
Invested
$5.04
Value
$5.04
PnL
-$0
Record
41%
662-968 (1630)
Invested
$4.16
Value
$4.16
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
2654-6198 (8852)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.5
PnL
+$0
Record
99%
224-2 (226)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$2.21
Value
$2.22
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
3143-5368 (8511)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.