Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on November 11?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 97¢ · $85 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$84.76
$0.32
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 97.5¢ | $58.5 | $58.14 | -$0.36 | 53% 5575-4959 (10534) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 95.5¢ | $11.47 | $11.63 | +$0.16 | 54% 445-377 (822) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $4.94 | $4.91 | -$0.04 | 43% 334-446 (780) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 96.9¢ | $4.04 | $4.04 | +$0 | 30% 2654-6198 (8852) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 96.9¢ | $2.15 | $2.15 | +$0 | 37% 3136-5367 (8503) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $1.54 | $2.09 | +$0.55 | 30% 256-590 (846) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.8¢ | $1.81 | $1.81 | +$0 | 68% 2062-949 (3011) |
Invested
$58.5
Value
$58.14
PnL
-$0.36
Record
53%
5575-4959 (10534)
Invested
$11.47
Value
$11.63
PnL
+$0.16
Record
54%
445-377 (822)
Invested
$4.94
Value
$4.91
PnL
-$0.04
Record
43%
334-446 (780)
Invested
$4.04
Value
$4.04
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
2654-6198 (8852)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$2.15
Value
$2.15
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
3136-5367 (8503)
Invested
$1.54
Value
$2.09
PnL
+$0.55
Record
30%
256-590 (846)
Invested
$1.81
Value
$1.81
PnL
+$0
Record
68%
2062-949 (3011)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.