Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on November 11?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 82¢ · $959 held · ends Nov 11

Yes19¢No81¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$959.46

Combined PnL

$52.48

Smart Money Entry

79.5¢ → 81.5¢

+3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$957.46

Total Shares1,121

Combined PnL+$52.88

Yes1 trader

Total Value$2

Total Shares10

Combined PnL-$0.4

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Noavg 79.9¢	$520.02	$552.96	+$32.94	59% 1019-705 (1724)
24 241532532432	Noavg 78.6¢	$309.4	$324.84	+$15.44	24% 163-516 (679)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 81¢	$45.2	$47.43	+$2.23	69% 2060-944 (3004)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 80¢	$16	$17	+$1	52% 5320-4824 (10144)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 79¢	$9.1	$9.8	+$0.69	85% 441-76 (517)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 76¢	$3.17	$3.55	+$0.38	28% 2449-6153 (8602)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$2.4	$2	-$0.4	51% 263-254 (517)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 76¢	$1.69	$1.89	+$0.2	35% 2910-5328 (8238)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Invested

$520.02

Value

$552.96

PnL

+$32.94

Record

59%

1019-705 (1724)

241532532432

Invested

$309.4

Value

$324.84

PnL

+$15.44

Record

24%

163-516 (679)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$45.2

Value

$47.43

PnL

+$2.23

Record

69%

2060-944 (3004)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$16

Value

$17

PnL

+$1

Record

52%

5320-4824 (10144)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$9.1

Value

$9.8

PnL

+$0.69

Record

85%

441-76 (517)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$3.17

Value

$3.55

PnL

+$0.38

Record

28%

2449-6153 (8602)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.4

Value

PnL

-$0.4

Record

51%

263-254 (517)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$1.69

Value

$1.89

PnL

+$0.2

Record

35%

2910-5328 (8238)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.