Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 32°C on November 11?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 56¢ · $21 held · ends Nov 11

Yes45¢No55¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$21.03

Combined PnL

-$0.34

Research grade

NeutralNo at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes45%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$17.86

Total Shares33

Combined PnL-$0.45

Yes1 trader

Total Value$3.16

Total Shares7

Combined PnL+$0.1

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 55¢	$11	$10.7	-$0.3	52% 5313-4817 (10130)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 56¢	$3.92	$3.75	-$0.17	24% 158-513 (671)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 45¢	$3.06	$3.16	+$0.1	86% 438-72 (510)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 52¢	$2.17	$2.23	+$0.06	28% 2439-6150 (8589)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 55¢	$1.22	$1.19	-$0.03	35% 2903-5326 (8229)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$11

Value

$10.7

PnL

-$0.3

Record

52%

5313-4817 (10130)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$3.92

Value

$3.75

PnL

-$0.17

Record

24%

158-513 (671)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.06

Value

$3.16

PnL

+$0.1

Record

86%

438-72 (510)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$2.17

Value

$2.23

PnL

+$0.06

Record

28%

2439-6150 (8589)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$1.22

Value

$1.19

PnL

-$0.03

Record

35%

2903-5326 (8229)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 56%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.