Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 31°C on November 11?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 67¢ · $202 held · ends Nov 11

Yes33¢No67¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

Total Value

$201.63

Combined PnL

$21.33

Research grade

NeutralNo at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes33%

No67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$152.86

Total Shares573

Combined PnL+$19.82

No4 traders

Total Value$48.77

Total Shares62

Combined PnL+$1.51

Yes — 43%No — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$66.31	$91.98	+$25.67	24% 158-513 (671)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 24.3¢	$62.84	$56.86	-$5.98	59% 1019-705 (1724)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 79¢	$28.53	$28.18	-$0.35	51% 256-247 (503)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 70¢	$14	$15.6	+$1.6	52% 5313-4817 (10130)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 29.5¢	$3.89	$4.02	+$0.13	86% 438-72 (510)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 74¢	$3.09	$3.26	+$0.17	28% 2439-6150 (8589)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 74¢	$1.64	$1.73	+$0.09	35% 2903-5326 (8229)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$66.31

Value

$91.98

PnL

+$25.67

Record

24%

158-513 (671)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$62.84

Value

$56.86

PnL

-$5.98

Record

59%

1019-705 (1724)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$28.53

Value

$28.18

PnL

-$0.35

Record

51%

256-247 (503)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$14

Value

$15.6

PnL

+$1.6

Record

52%

5313-4817 (10130)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.89

Value

$4.02

PnL

+$0.13

Record

86%

438-72 (510)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$3.09

Value

$3.26

PnL

+$0.17

Record

28%

2439-6150 (8589)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$1.64

Value

$1.73

PnL

+$0.09

Record

35%

2903-5326 (8229)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 67%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.1%

67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$44.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

144.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.