Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 30°C on November 11?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 94¢ · $31 held · ends Nov 11

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$30.67

Combined PnL

-$1.14

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$25.29

Total Shares26

Combined PnL-$0.16

Yes2 traders

Total Value$5.38

Total Shares79

Combined PnL-$0.98

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 96.9¢	$19.38	$19.17	-$0.21	52% 5313-4817 (10130)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 95¢	$3.96	$4	+$0.04	28% 2439-6150 (8589)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.6¢	$3.98	$3.63	-$0.35	24% 158-513 (671)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 95¢	$2.11	$2.13	+$0.02	35% 2903-5326 (8229)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.8¢	$2.63	$1.75	-$0.63	51% 256-247 (503)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.38

Value

$19.17

PnL

-$0.21

Record

52%

5313-4817 (10130)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$3.96

Value

PnL

+$0.04

Record

28%

2439-6150 (8589)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.98

Value

$3.63

PnL

-$0.35

Record

24%

158-513 (671)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$2.11

Value

$2.13

PnL

+$0.02

Record

35%

2903-5326 (8229)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.63

Value

$1.75

PnL

-$0.63

Record

51%

256-247 (503)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.2%

94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.