Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on November 10?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 98¢ · $116 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$115.96
-$6.23
93.7¢ → 97.8¢
+4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 93.4¢ | $88.35 | $81.57 | -$6.78 | 23% 149-503 (652) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $18.6 | $17.3 | -$1.3 | 52% 5296-4806 (10102) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 94.2¢ | $5.16 | $5.68 | +$0.52 | 52% 244-227 (471) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $3.41 | $5.1 | +$1.7 | 2% 16-663 (679) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $4.17 | $4.13 | -$0.04 | 28% 2422-6146 (8568) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $2.5 | $2.18 | -$0.32 | 100% 94-0 (94) |
Invested
$88.35
Value
$81.57
PnL
-$6.78
Record
23%
149-503 (652)
Invested
$18.6
Value
$17.3
PnL
-$1.3
Record
52%
5296-4806 (10102)
Invested
$5.16
Value
$5.68
PnL
+$0.52
Record
52%
244-227 (471)
Invested
$3.41
Value
$5.1
PnL
+$1.7
Record
2%
16-663 (679)
Invested
$4.17
Value
$4.13
PnL
-$0.04
Record
28%
2422-6146 (8568)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.18
PnL
-$0.32
Record
100%
94-0 (94)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.