Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on November 10?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 73¢ · $142 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$142.23
-$16.84
Research grade
NeutralNo at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 70.7¢ | $61.61 | $60.92 | -$0.69 | 21% 132-485 (617) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 36¢ | $72.82 | $54.59 | -$18.23 | 2% 12-662 (674) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $13 | $14.2 | +$1.2 | 52% 5134-4698 (9832) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 63.7¢ | $9.38 | $10.25 | +$0.89 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $2.27 | $2.27 | +$0 | 89% 409-53 (462) |
Invested
$61.61
Value
$60.92
PnL
-$0.69
Record
21%
132-485 (617)
Invested
$72.82
Value
$54.59
PnL
-$18.23
Record
2%
12-662 (674)
Invested
$13
Value
$14.2
PnL
+$1.2
Record
52%
5134-4698 (9832)
Invested
$9.38
Value
$10.25
PnL
+$0.89
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
Invested
$2.27
Value
$2.27
PnL
+$0
Record
89%
409-53 (462)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.