Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 32°C on November 10?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 64¢ · $115 held · ends Nov 10

Yes37¢No63¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$115.13

Combined PnL

$0.6

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes37%

No64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$92.49

Total Shares158

Combined PnL-$4.95

Yes2 traders

Total Value$22.64

Total Shares55

Combined PnL+$5.55

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE HellYeahTrader<$100	Noavg 63¢	$84.39	$78.33	-$6.06	2% 16-663 (679)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 34.4¢	$13.75	$16.6	+$2.85	23% 149-503 (652)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 56¢	$11.2	$11.7	+$0.5	52% 5296-4806 (10102)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 34.4¢	$8.44	$6.04	+$2.7	52% 244-227 (471)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 44¢	$1.85	$2.45	+$0.61	28% 2422-6146 (8568)

HellYeahTrader<$100

Invested

$84.39

Value

$78.33

PnL

-$6.06

Record

16-663 (679)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.75

Value

$16.6

PnL

+$2.85

Record

23%

149-503 (652)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$11.2

Value

$11.7

PnL

+$0.5

Record

52%

5296-4806 (10102)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.44

Value

$6.04

PnL

+$2.7

Record

52%

244-227 (471)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$1.85

Value

$2.45

PnL

+$0.61

Record

28%

2422-6146 (8568)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.