Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 31°C on November 10?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 82¢ · $446 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$446.17
-$39.5
86.1¢ → 81.5¢
-5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 86.7¢ | $261.61 | $238.59 | -$23.02 | 21% 132-485 (617) |
HE HellYeahTrader | Noavg 85.7¢ | $174.7 | $160.99 | -$13.7 | 2% 12-662 (674) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 81.2¢ | $23.16 | $22.5 | -$0.66 | 89% 409-53 (462) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 86.5¢ | $17.3 | $15.8 | -$1.5 | 52% 5134-4698 (9832) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $12.62 | $8.28 | -$0.61 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
Invested
$261.61
Value
$238.59
PnL
-$23.02
Record
21%
132-485 (617)
Invested
$174.7
Value
$160.99
PnL
-$13.7
Record
2%
12-662 (674)
Invested
$23.16
Value
$22.5
PnL
-$0.66
Record
89%
409-53 (462)
Invested
$17.3
Value
$15.8
PnL
-$1.5
Record
52%
5134-4698 (9832)
Invested
$12.62
Value
$8.28
PnL
-$0.61
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.