Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on October 30?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 69¢ · $185 held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$185.17
-$43.5
Research grade
NeutralNo at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 44¢ | $97.74 | $97.54 | -$0.2 | 50% 1704-1692 (3396) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 61.6¢ | $30.96 | $31.18 | +$4.18 | 57% 13340-10198 (23538) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 66¢ | $200.96 | $28.71 | -$48.14 | 23% 287-958 (1245) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $31.56 | $20.28 | -$1.09 | 53% 6405-5609 (12014) |
C2 0xc22b...deab<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $5.52 | $4.48 | -$1.04 | — |
74 0x7495...7fcfCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $0.2 | $2.99 | +$2.79 | 18% 519-2317 (2836) |
Invested
$97.74
Value
$97.54
PnL
-$0.2
Record
50%
1704-1692 (3396)
Invested
$30.96
Value
$31.18
PnL
+$4.18
Record
57%
13340-10198 (23538)
IstarothInvested
$200.96
Value
$28.71
PnL
-$48.14
Record
23%
287-958 (1245)
Invested
$31.56
Value
$20.28
PnL
-$1.09
Record
53%
6405-5609 (12014)
Invested
$5.52
Value
$4.48
PnL
-$1.04
Record
—
Invested
$0.2
Value
$2.99
PnL
+$2.79
Record
18%
519-2317 (2836)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.