Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on October 30?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 52¢ · $278 held · ends Oct 30

Yes52¢No48¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$278.22

Combined PnL

$3.02

Research grade

NeutralYes at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes52%

No48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$35.09

Total Shares67

Combined PnL+$7.5

No2 traders

Total Value$12.86

Total Shares27

Combined PnL-$4.49

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 59.6¢	$244.61	$230.27	-$3.15	23% 287-958 (1245)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 41.9¢	$96.39	$119.74	+$23.71
└ No leg	Noavg 59.6¢	$137.14	$110.53	-$26.86
fildoro<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$20.78	$30.02	+$7.5	62% 1435-880 (2315)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 57.3¢	$26.26	$9.02	-$4.49	57% 13340-10198 (23538)
HE hello.67<$100	Yesavg 52¢	$5.07	$5.07	+$0	50% 1704-1692 (3396)
C2 0xc22b...deabCTR<$100	Noavg 48¢	$3.84	$3.84	+$0	—

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$244.61

Value

$230.27

PnL

-$3.15

Record

23%

287-958 (1245)

Both legs:

Yes$96.3941.9¢+$23.71

No$137.1459.6¢-$26.86

fildoro<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.78

Value

$30.02

PnL

+$7.5

Record

62%

1435-880 (2315)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$26.26

Value

$9.02

PnL

-$4.49

Record

57%

13340-10198 (23538)

hello.67<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.07

Value

$5.07

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

1704-1692 (3396)

0xc22b...deabCTR<$100

Invested

$3.84

Value

$3.84

PnL

+$0

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralYes at 52%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.2%

52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$84.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

184.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.