Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on October 28?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 55¢ · $400 held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$399.63
$38.8
68.5¢ → 55¢
-20% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 fildoroCTR | Yesavg 23.8¢ | $70.29 | $132.93 | +$56.72 | 62% 1432-872 (2304) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR | Yesavg 33¢ | $94.17 | $128.51 | +$28.62 | 54% 244-212 (456) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 70.9¢ | $193.92 | $113.89 | -$45.66 | 29% 280-697 (977) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $25.18 | $24.3 | -$0.88 | 50% 1640-1625 (3265) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.