Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on October 27?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 81¢ · $233 held · ends Oct 27

Yes81¢No19¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$232.86

Combined PnL

-$12.79

Smart Money Entry

83.2¢ → 81¢

-3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 81%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes81%

No19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$219.78

Total Shares271

Combined PnL+$4.7

No2 traders

Total Value$13.08

Total Shares74

Combined PnL-$17.49

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE HellYeahTrader	Yesavg 80.9¢	$148.71	$148.83	+$10.87	55% 191-155 (346)
0X 0x26b166604677eaef5f2e81b716f539ed2857cc81<$100	Yesavg 88¢	$77.12	$70.95	-$6.17	54% 272-230 (502)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 51.3¢	$42.34	$12.95	-$15.62	53% 6112-5366 (11478)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 37¢	$2	$0.13	-$1.87	36% 14340-25707 (40047)

HellYeahTrader

Yes

Invested

$148.71

Value

$148.83

PnL

+$10.87

Record

55%

191-155 (346)

0x26b166604677eaef5f2e81b716f539ed2857cc81<$100

Yes

Invested

$77.12

Value

$70.95

PnL

-$6.17

Record

54%

272-230 (502)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$42.34

Value

$12.95

PnL

-$15.62

Record

53%

6112-5366 (11478)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$1.87

Record

36%

14340-25707 (40047)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 81%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.7%

81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.