Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 8°C or below on November 5?

12 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $322 held · ends Nov 5

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$321.55

Combined PnL

$2.55

Smart Money Entry

99.1¢ → 100¢

+1% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 12 top traders (100%)11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$321.55

Total Shares322

Combined PnL+$2.55

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth	Noavg 99.9¢	$119.89	$99.1	-$0.03	14% 461-2758 (3219)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$54.12	$54.12	-$0	59% 11839-8177 (20016)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.12	$35.57	-$0.02	47% 1690-1872 (3562)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$29.95	$29.97	+$0.02	50% 9800-9775 (19575)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 92.2¢	$27.66	$29.97	+$2.31	42% 7028-9819 (16847)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$22.04	$22.04	-$0	32% 2522-5398 (7920)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$19.98	$19.98	-$0	77% 12539-3686 (16225)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$11.14	$11.14	-$0	40% 2177-3221 (5398)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$6	$6	-$0	47% 2141-2439 (4580)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.18	$5.17	-$0	41% 1183-1676 (2859)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.01	$5	-$0	55% 4411-3608 (8019)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 91.9¢	$3.2	$3.48	+$0.28	50% 659-658 (1317)

Istaroth

Invested

$119.89

Value

$99.1

PnL

-$0.03

Record

14%

461-2758 (3219)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$54.12

Value

$54.12

PnL

-$0

Record

59%

11839-8177 (20016)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$5.12

Value

$35.57

PnL

-$0.02

Record

47%

1690-1872 (3562)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$29.95

Value

$29.97

PnL

+$0.02

Record

50%

9800-9775 (19575)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$27.66

Value

$29.97

PnL

+$2.31

Record

42%

7028-9819 (16847)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$22.04

Value

$22.04

PnL

-$0

Record

32%

2522-5398 (7920)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$19.98

Value

$19.98

PnL

-$0

Record

77%

12539-3686 (16225)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$11.14

Value

$11.14

PnL

-$0

Record

40%

2177-3221 (5398)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

Value

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

2141-2439 (4580)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$5.18

Value

$5.17

PnL

-$0

Record

41%

1183-1676 (2859)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$5.01

Value

PnL

-$0

Record

55%

4411-3608 (8019)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$3.2

Value

$3.48

PnL

+$0.28

Record

50%

659-658 (1317)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 12 top traders (100%)11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.