Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on November 5?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 100¢ · $396 held · ends Nov 5

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$395.79

Combined PnL

$6.1

Smart Money Entry

53.4¢ → 99.5¢

+86% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$395.19

Total Shares396

Combined PnL+$5.99

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.59

Total Shares59

Combined PnL+$0.11

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293	Noavg 8.4¢	$56.62	$190.53	-$0.35	47% 1725-1919 (3644)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 94.9¢	$116	$115.59	+$5.48	53% 23194-20409 (43603)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 94.1¢	$68.15	$33.34	+$0.06	58% 20305-14907 (35212)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$29.48	$29.94	+$0.46	46% 10400-12132 (22532)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 91.8¢	$11.26	$12.24	+$0.98	54% 10311-8906 (19217)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 97¢	$22.02	$11.06	-$0.63	43% 2237-2912 (5149)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$2.5	$2.49	-$0.01	96% 159-6 (165)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$0.3	$0.3	+$0.01	41% 1167-1673 (2840)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$0.19	$0.29	+$0.1	47% 2267-2540 (4807)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293

Invested

$56.62

Value

$190.53

PnL

-$0.35

Record

47%

1725-1919 (3644)

cigarettes

Invested

$116

Value

$115.59

PnL

+$5.48

Record

53%

23194-20409 (43603)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$68.15

Value

$33.34

PnL

+$0.06

Record

58%

20305-14907 (35212)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$29.48

Value

$29.94

PnL

+$0.46

Record

46%

10400-12132 (22532)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$11.26

Value

$12.24

PnL

+$0.98

Record

54%

10311-8906 (19217)

123987456<$100

Invested

$22.02

Value

$11.06

PnL

-$0.63

Record

43%

2237-2912 (5149)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.49

PnL

-$0.01

Record

96%

159-6 (165)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.3

Value

$0.3

PnL

+$0.01

Record

41%

1167-1673 (2840)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.19

Value

$0.29

PnL

+$0.1

Record

47%

2267-2540 (4807)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.