Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (97%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C on November 5?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 2.6¢ · $264 held · ends Nov 5

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 63%

Total Value

$264.43

Combined PnL

$438.4

Smart Money Entry

28.7¢ → 2.6¢

-91% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$139.34

Total Shares143

Combined PnL+$544.52

Yes5 traders

Total Value$125.09

Total Shares606

Combined PnL-$106.12

No — 38%Yes — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+18 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 49.1¢	$116	$112.87	+$55.95	53% 23194-20409 (43603)
PO PoligarchCTR	Yesavg 39.1¢	$117.33	$107.72	-$9.61	54% 10311-8906 (19217)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 69.6¢	$112.03	$24.48	-$4.37	58% 20305-14907 (35212)
BI BilberryCTR	Yesavg 26.2¢	$109.41	$16.26	-$94.73	53% 3954-3514 (7468)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 8.5¢	$60.08	$1.98	+$492.93	47% 1725-1919 (3644)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 10.4¢	$1.46	$0.54	-$0.91	47% 2267-2540 (4807)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.6¢	$0.53	$0.31	-$0.22	41% 1167-1673 (2840)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$10	$0.26	-$0.65	43% 2237-2912 (5149)

cigarettes

Invested

$116

Value

$112.87

PnL

+$55.95

Record

53%

23194-20409 (43603)

PoligarchCTR

Yes

Invested

$117.33

Value

$107.72

PnL

-$9.61

Record

54%

10311-8906 (19217)

ghorrock

Invested

$112.03

Value

$24.48

PnL

-$4.37

Record

58%

20305-14907 (35212)

BilberryCTR

Yes

Invested

$109.41

Value

$16.26

PnL

-$94.73

Record

53%

3954-3514 (7468)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$60.08

Value

$1.98

PnL

+$492.93

Record

47%

1725-1919 (3644)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.46

Value

$0.54

PnL

-$0.91

Record

47%

2267-2540 (4807)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.53

Value

$0.31

PnL

-$0.22

Record

41%

1167-1673 (2840)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$0.26

PnL

-$0.65

Record

43%

2237-2912 (5149)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+18 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.8%

2.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2513.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

2613.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.