Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on November 4?

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 94¢ · $201 held · ends Nov 4

Yes94¢No6¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$200.69

Combined PnL

-$24.79

Smart Money Entry

70.2¢ → 93.5¢

+33% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes94%

No7%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$166.38

Total Shares184

Combined PnL+$28.53

No7 traders

Total Value$34.3

Total Shares423

Combined PnL-$53.32

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+23 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE HellYeahTrader<$100	Yesavg 54.2¢	$40.22	$61.61	+$21.4	56% 621-495 (1116)
Istaroth<$100	Yesavg 80.5¢	$52.45	$48.96	-$3.09	15% 435-2472 (2907)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 89¢	$17.55	$18.33	+$0.79	53% 9883-8605 (18488)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 14.1¢	$24.85	$17.2	-$7.65	47% 2092-2375 (4467)
24 241532532432<$100	Yesavg 77.9¢	$13.25	$14.11	+$0.86	58% 2456-1793 (4249)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Yesavg 82¢	$7.73	$8.43	+$0.7	40% 2112-3153 (5265)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 31.4¢	$71.69	$8.31	-$31.45	78% 12157-3379 (15536)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Yesavg 71¢	$6.18	$7.91	+$7.26	41% 1149-1645 (2794)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Yesavg 82¢	$6.39	$7.01	+$0.62	39% 1012-1603 (2615)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 11.9¢	$9.55	$4.8	-$4.75	60% 11636-7873 (19509)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 9.5¢	$2.9	$1.83	-$1.07	47% 1638-1811 (3449)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 26.9¢	$10.32	$1.44	-$6.89	58% 19232-14159 (33391)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 65¢	$8.58	$0.4	-$1.6	30% 2222-5090 (7312)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 6¢	$0.23	$0.32	+$0.09	39% 1000-1544 (2544)

HellYeahTrader<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.22

Value

$61.61

PnL

+$21.4

Record

56%

621-495 (1116)

Istaroth<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.45

Value

$48.96

PnL

-$3.09

Record

15%

435-2472 (2907)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.55

Value

$18.33

PnL

+$0.79

Record

53%

9883-8605 (18488)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$24.85

Value

$17.2

PnL

-$7.65

Record

47%

2092-2375 (4467)

241532532432<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.25

Value

$14.11

PnL

+$0.86

Record

58%

2456-1793 (4249)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.73

Value

$8.43

PnL

+$0.7

Record

40%

2112-3153 (5265)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$71.69

Value

$8.31

PnL

-$31.45

Record

78%

12157-3379 (15536)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.18

Value

$7.91

PnL

+$7.26

Record

41%

1149-1645 (2794)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.39

Value

$7.01

PnL

+$0.62

Record

39%

1012-1603 (2615)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$9.55

Value

$4.8

PnL

-$4.75

Record

60%

11636-7873 (19509)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$2.9

Value

$1.83

PnL

-$1.07

Record

47%

1638-1811 (3449)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$10.32

Value

$1.44

PnL

-$6.89

Record

58%

19232-14159 (33391)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$8.58

Value

$0.4

PnL

-$1.6

Record

30%

2222-5090 (7312)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$0.23

Value

$0.32

PnL

+$0.09

Record

39%

1000-1544 (2544)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 94%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+23 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.