Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on November 2?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 62¢ · $29 held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$29.4
-$1.03
Research grade
NeutralNo at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 65%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 72.9¢ | $12.84 | $12.51 | -$0.33 | 57% 17234-12896 (30130) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $7.17 | $7.17 | +$0 | 54% 7707-6456 (14163) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $4.17 | $3.56 | -$0.6 | 37% 683-1149 (1832) |
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $3.24 | $3.19 | -$0.05 | 56% 3736-2985 (6721) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $3.02 | $2.97 | -$0.05 | 37% 758-1271 (2029) |
Invested
$12.84
Value
$12.51
PnL
-$0.33
Record
57%
17234-12896 (30130)
Invested
$7.17
Value
$7.17
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
7707-6456 (14163)
Invested
$4.17
Value
$3.56
PnL
-$0.6
Record
37%
683-1149 (1832)
Invested
$3.24
Value
$3.19
PnL
-$0.05
Record
56%
3736-2985 (6721)
Invested
$3.02
Value
$2.97
PnL
-$0.05
Record
37%
758-1271 (2029)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.