Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on November 2?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 76¢ · $210 held · ends Nov 2

Yes24¢No76¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$209.96

Combined PnL

$0.05

Smart Money Entry

71.8¢ → 76¢

+6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes24%

No76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$179.48

Total Shares231

Combined PnL+$10.12

Yes1 trader

Total Value$30.48

Total Shares127

Combined PnL-$10.07

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67	Noavg 72.2¢	$143.08	$150.59	+$7.51	50% 1906-1873 (3779)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 31.9¢	$40.55	$30.48	-$10.07	59% 1919-1349 (3268)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 72.4¢	$14.74	$15.02	+$0.67	18% 364-1623 (1987)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 67.2¢	$24.23	$13.86	+$1.93	56% 14220-11020 (25240)

hello.67

Invested

$143.08

Value

$150.59

PnL

+$7.51

Record

50%

1906-1873 (3779)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.55

Value

$30.48

PnL

-$10.07

Record

59%

1919-1349 (3268)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$14.74

Value

$15.02

PnL

+$0.67

Record

18%

364-1623 (1987)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$24.23

Value

$13.86

PnL

+$1.93

Record

56%

14220-11020 (25240)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.9%

76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.