Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on November 15?

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (55%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $92 held · ended Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 55%

Total Value

$91.94

Combined PnL

$0.43

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$91.49

Total Shares92

Combined PnL+$1.21

Yes6 traders

Total Value$0.45

Total Shares114

Combined PnL-$0.78

No — 45%Yes — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

55% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$49.18	$49.36	+$0.18	53% 7473-6603 (14076)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 94¢	$14.1	$14.87	+$0.77	33% 83-166 (249)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$12.45	$12.4	-$0.05	99% 1609-24 (1633)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 96¢	$9.6	$9.91	+$0.31	31% 1122-2474 (3596)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$4.96	$4.96	+$0	47% 887-1007 (1894)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.31	$0.16	-$0.15	51% 945-892 (1837)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$0.36	$0.14	-$0.22	47% 1242-1391 (2633)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.04	$0.06	+$0.01	60% 874-593 (1467)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.03	$0.04	+$0.01	49% 854-884 (1738)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.03	$0.03	-$0	58% 864-619 (1483)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.45	$0.02	-$0.44	40% 2676-3963 (6639)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$49.18

Value

$49.36

PnL

+$0.18

Record

53%

7473-6603 (14076)

123987456<$100

Invested

$14.1

Value

$14.87

PnL

+$0.77

Record

33%

83-166 (249)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$12.45

Value

$12.4

PnL

-$0.05

Record

99%

1609-24 (1633)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$9.6

Value

$9.91

PnL

+$0.31

Record

31%

1122-2474 (3596)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$4.96

Value

$4.96

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

887-1007 (1894)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.31

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$0.15

Record

51%

945-892 (1837)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.36

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$0.22

Record

47%

1242-1391 (2633)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.06

PnL

+$0.01

Record

60%

874-593 (1467)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.04

PnL

+$0.01

Record

49%

854-884 (1738)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

864-619 (1483)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.44

Record

40%

2676-3963 (6639)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

55% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.5%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6707.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

6807.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.