Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (99%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C on November 15?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 1.2¢ · $111 held · ended Nov 15

Yes99¢No1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$110.89

Combined PnL

-$172.17

Smart Money Entry

64.8¢ → 1.2¢

-98% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 99%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$105.65

Total Shares107

Combined PnL-$1.12

No6 traders

Total Value$5.24

Total Shares270

Combined PnL-$171.05

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 99¢	$74.9	$69.33	-$5.57	71% 950-388 (1338)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Yesavg 98¢	$29.42	$29.42	-$0	51% 945-892 (1837)
E4 e46m3<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.45	$4.9	+$4.45	40% 2676-3963 (6639)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 69.5¢	$15.24	$3.42	-$11.82	53% 2305-2071 (4376)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Yesavg 98¢	$2	$2	+$0	49% 854-884 (1738)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Noavg 60.8¢	$82.77	$0.95	-$81.82	43% 56-75 (131)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 77.4¢	$38.57	$0.35	-$38.23	53% 7468-6589 (14057)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Noavg 68¢	$33.41	$0.34	-$33.06	42% 803-1100 (1903)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 0.7¢	$0.04	$0.1	+$0.07	58% 864-619 (1483)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Noavg 62.6¢	$6.26	$0.07	-$6.19	34% 352-671 (1023)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$74.9

Value

$69.33

PnL

-$5.57

Record

71%

950-388 (1338)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.42

Value

$29.42

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

945-892 (1837)

e46m3<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

$4.9

PnL

+$4.45

Record

40%

2676-3963 (6639)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$15.24

Value

$3.42

PnL

-$11.82

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

854-884 (1738)

BilberryCTR<$100

Invested

$82.77

Value

$0.95

PnL

-$81.82

Record

43%

56-75 (131)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$38.57

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$38.23

Record

53%

7468-6589 (14057)

241532532432CTR<$100

Invested

$33.41

Value

$0.34

PnL

-$33.06

Record

42%

803-1100 (1903)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.1

PnL

+$0.07

Record

58%

864-619 (1483)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Invested

$6.26

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$6.19

Record

34%

352-671 (1023)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 99%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.3%

1.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4233.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

4333.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.