Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on November 14?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 100¢ · $214 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$214.36

Combined PnL

-$1.78

Smart Money Entry

98¢ → 99.5¢

+2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$198.59

Total Shares202

Combined PnL-$0.25

Yes4 traders

Total Value$15.77

Total Shares322

Combined PnL-$1.52

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$96.14	$96.04	-$0.1	63% 736-439 (1175)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 92¢	$39.59	$31.46	+$1.56	52% 1696-1538 (3234)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$40.64	$23.66	-$1.5	49% 753-797 (1550)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 96.8¢	$19.36	$19.34	-$0.02	53% 7024-6169 (13193)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$18.13	$17.94	-$0.19	51% 769-727 (1496)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.5¢	$24.16	$12.99	-$1.31	40% 650-980 (1630)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$10.16	$10.15	-$0.01	59% 724-513 (1237)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.1¢	$1.53	$1.23	-$0.3	55% 2285-1885 (4170)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.9¢	$1.15	$1.16	+$0.01	49% 785-823 (1608)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.9¢	$0.31	$0.4	+$0.08	46% 1095-1300 (2395)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$96.14

Value

$96.04

PnL

-$0.1

Record

63%

736-439 (1175)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$39.59

Value

$31.46

PnL

+$1.56

Record

52%

1696-1538 (3234)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$40.64

Value

$23.66

PnL

-$1.5

Record

49%

753-797 (1550)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.36

Value

$19.34

PnL

-$0.02

Record

53%

7024-6169 (13193)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$18.13

Value

$17.94

PnL

-$0.19

Record

51%

769-727 (1496)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.16

Value

$12.99

PnL

-$1.31

Record

40%

650-980 (1630)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$10.16

Value

$10.15

PnL

-$0.01

Record

59%

724-513 (1237)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.53

Value

$1.23

PnL

-$0.3

Record

55%

2285-1885 (4170)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.15

Value

$1.16

PnL

+$0.01

Record

49%

785-823 (1608)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.31

Value

$0.4

PnL

+$0.08

Record

46%

1095-1300 (2395)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.