Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on November 14?

10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 93¢ · $200 held · ends Nov 14

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$199.99

Combined PnL

$10.44

Smart Money Entry

84.7¢ → 93.5¢

+10% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 10 top traders (100%)9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$199.99

Total Shares221

Combined PnL+$10.44

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702	Noavg 91.1¢	$119.98	$122.99	+$3	51% 769-727 (1496)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 72.7¢	$29.08	$32.81	+$3.73	40% 650-980 (1630)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 69.3¢	$13.86	$16.4	+$2.54	53% 7024-6169 (13193)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 85.2¢	$6.53	$5.39	-$1.14	51% 719-703 (1422)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 85.2¢	$4.35	$4.49	+$0.14	46% 1095-1300 (2395)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 85.2¢	$4.34	$4.47	+$0.14	58% 703-515 (1218)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 84.1¢	$4.28	$4.28	+$0	59% 724-513 (1237)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 84.1¢	$4.24	$4.24	+$0	49% 753-797 (1550)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 69¢	$6.73	$3.79	+$1.98	52% 1696-1538 (3234)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 85.2¢	$1.08	$1.12	+$0.03	49% 785-823 (1608)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702

Invested

$119.98

Value

$122.99

PnL

+$3

Record

51%

769-727 (1496)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$29.08

Value

$32.81

PnL

+$3.73

Record

40%

650-980 (1630)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$13.86

Value

$16.4

PnL

+$2.54

Record

53%

7024-6169 (13193)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$6.53

Value

$5.39

PnL

-$1.14

Record

51%

719-703 (1422)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$4.35

Value

$4.49

PnL

+$0.14

Record

46%

1095-1300 (2395)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$4.34

Value

$4.47

PnL

+$0.14

Record

58%

703-515 (1218)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$4.28

Value

$4.28

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

724-513 (1237)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$4.24

Value

$4.24

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

753-797 (1550)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$6.73

Value

$3.79

PnL

+$1.98

Record

52%

1696-1538 (3234)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$1.08

Value

$1.12

PnL

+$0.03

Record

49%

785-823 (1608)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 10 top traders (100%)9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.7%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.