Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (67%). 7 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on November 14?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 33¢ · $196 held · ends Nov 14

Yes67¢No33¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 64%

Total Value

$196.46

Combined PnL

$96.38

Research grade

NeutralNo at 33%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 67%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes67%

No33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$171.7

Total Shares248

Combined PnL+$71.69

No7 traders

Total Value$24.73

Total Shares80

Combined PnL+$24.69

Yes — 36%No — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67	Yesavg 37.1¢	$85.66	$156.69	+$71.03	55% 2285-1885 (4170)
24 241532532432CTR	Noavg 35.5¢	$107.05	$9.67	+$27.68	40% 650-980 (1630)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Yesavg 67.9¢	$6.2	$7.84	+$1.64	51% 769-727 (1496)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Yesavg 67.9¢	$4.18	$3.92	-$0.26	49% 753-797 (1550)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 59.2¢	$11.84	$3.6	-$8.24	53% 7024-6169 (13193)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Yesavg 77.9¢	$3.97	$3.24	-$0.73	49% 785-823 (1608)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 25.6¢	$2.07	$2.94	+$0.87	52% 1696-1538 (3234)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 18.1¢	$1.43	$2.59	+$1.16	59% 724-513 (1237)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Noavg 16.4¢	$1.12	$2.24	+$1.12	63% 736-439 (1175)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 13.2¢	$0.67	$1.85	+$1.18	51% 804-766 (1570)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 18.1¢	$0.91	$1.84	+$0.92	58% 703-515 (1218)

hello.67

Yes

Invested

$85.66

Value

$156.69

PnL

+$71.03

Record

55%

2285-1885 (4170)

241532532432CTR

Invested

$107.05

Value

$9.67

PnL

+$27.68

Record

40%

650-980 (1630)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.2

Value

$7.84

PnL

+$1.64

Record

51%

769-727 (1496)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.18

Value

$3.92

PnL

-$0.26

Record

49%

753-797 (1550)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$11.84

Value

$3.6

PnL

-$8.24

Record

53%

7024-6169 (13193)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.97

Value

$3.24

PnL

-$0.73

Record

49%

785-823 (1608)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$2.07

Value

$2.94

PnL

+$0.87

Record

52%

1696-1538 (3234)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$1.43

Value

$2.59

PnL

+$1.16

Record

59%

724-513 (1237)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Invested

$1.12

Value

$2.24

PnL

+$1.12

Record

63%

736-439 (1175)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$0.67

Value

$1.85

PnL

+$1.18

Record

51%

804-766 (1570)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$0.91

Value

$1.84

PnL

+$0.92

Record

58%

703-515 (1218)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 33%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 67%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.5%

33.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$181.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

281.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.